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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Global rice stocks are expected to reach a record high of 198.1 million tonnes. This increase is due to India which, with China, should represent almost three quarters of this volume, as in previous seasons.

This is the latest prediction from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

“It is estimated that overall rice reserves held by other countries will experience a second consecutive contraction at the end of this year, reaching the lowest figure in the last four years, namely 51.4 million tonnes,” according to the World Grain report, cited Thursday (14). / 9/2023).

The FAO forecasts, although slight, an increase in global cereal production in 2022-2023 to reach 2.815 billion tonnes, which equates to a record production in 2020-2021.

In its latest supply and demand summary, FAO also said that maize production is expected to increase by 2.7% to a record 1.215 billion tonnes in 2022-23.

This increase was supported by strong harvests in Brazil and Ukraine. This figure also more than offsets production cuts made in the United States and the European Union (EU).

“Global cereal utilization in the coming season is also estimated at 2.807 billion tonnes, 0.8% higher than the 2022-2023 level,” according to FAO, as cited by World Grain.

World cereal stocks at the end of the 2023-2024 marketing campaign are estimated at 878 million tonnes, an annual increase of 2.2%. This suggests that the global cereal stock-to-use ratio is 30.5%, which FAO considers a historically comfortable overall global supply level.

Despite this, the FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal trade in 2024-2024 to 466 million tonnes, a 1.7% decline from the previous marketing year.

Wheat and corn trade volumes are expected to decline for a variety of reasons, including a decline in Ukrainian exports due to trade disruptions related to the ongoing war.

In contrast, wheat production saw a decline of 2.6% from the previous marketing year, to 781.1 million tonnes, but this is still the second highest wheat production on record.

The FAO said revisions to wheat production forecasts in Canada and the European Union, due to persistent dry weather limiting crop yields, were the main cause of this month’s decline.

China’s wheat production forecasts were also revised downwards, although to a lesser extent. This decline is due to the fact that heavy rains in the main producing areas have reduced the outlook for crop yields.

“Despite slight downward revisions since July, global rice production in 2024-2024 is still expected to recover by 1.1% from the previous season to reach 523.2 million tonnes,” according to the FAO.

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