By : Agus Rahardjo, journalist from the Republic
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, The hopes of the people who yearned for the emergence of three pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidates in 2024, seem to have been answered after the official announcement of the General President of the PDI- P, Megawati Soekarnoputri. whom she called Ganjar Pranowo. Ganjar, who is currently governor of Central Java, rounds out the top three presidential candidates who endorse electability according to a number of survey institutes. The three, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan.
All three would be ideal candidates for the 2024 presidential election. However, among the three names, only Ganjar and Anies Baswedan officially meet the presidential nomination threshold of 20 percent of political party votes. Ganjar, just count on the PDIP to be able to get a foothold in the presidential election candidacy. Anies, supported by the Coalition for Change, also qualified to fight Ganjar.
Different conditions were experienced by Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, supported by Gerindra and the National Awakening Party (PKB) in the Coalition for the Awakening of Greater Indonesia (KKIR). Gerindra’s vote is absolute in favor of Ketum Gerindra as presidential candidate, but has not yet received official support from the party he leads. Muhaimin Iskandar This.
Additionally, the country’s political dynamics are still subject to change. What is certain is that since the PDIP announced the name of Ganjar, the previous political pendulum is visible calm now it’s starting to swing again. It’s not just Prabowo versus Anies, but now Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies Baswedan.
Previously, it was expected that Prabowo’s name would be President Jokowi’s successor. This is because previously the name Ganjar, pushed by Jokowi, did not receive a clear ticket from the PDIP. Jokowi’s maneuver to obtain the name he chose for the coming period is very visible inendorse-name, both Ganjar and Prabowo.
Maybe, endorse Jokowi addressed Prabowo by mentioning “Pribowo’s presidential election in 2024” during the Perindo party anniversary in early November 2022 as a strong warning to the PDIP regarding Ganjar. This means that the maneuver went well, because Megawati finally responded by officially announcing Ganjar as a presidential candidate at Batu Tulis Palace on April 21, 2023. In this way, Jokowi has two successor candidates in the presidential election of 2024.
However, with Ganjar’s advancement, will Prabowo still be Jokowi’s “person” in the 2024 presidential election? Because, as many predictions and analyzes suggest, the ruling party only wants two pairs of candidates in the 2024 presidential election. With only two pairs of candidates competing, it is possible that the “person” in power, i.e. the incumbent president, wins.
This makes sense, because Jokowi, like it or not, is the central figure in the discourse on forming a grand coalition that was discussed with the general chairmen of five political parties at the National Mandate Party office ( BANG). This speech has not stopped. The idea of forming a grand coalition has even spread to various coalitions.
Look, recently there have been maneuvers by the general chairman of the party that could change the roadmap of both presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Meetings of political party elites in recent days indicate that it will be difficult to realize the wishes of the two pairs of candidates.
According to the author, since Ganjar was announced as a presidential candidate by Megawati Soekarnoputri, coalitions will naturally change for political parties. The instinct of political parties is to maintain their vote share. One way to win votes is to take advantage of the tailcoat effect, in particular by nominating your executives in the 2024 presidential election.
In fact, Golkar, who currently does not have an extraordinary figure with “worthy” eligibility to be a presidential candidate, also hopes to still be able to nominate Airlangga Hartarto. This instinct is natural, because in this way Golkar can save votes and have the opportunity to enter the government in the coming period.
Simulation and surprise
With three names already circulating, it is certain that the current race is for the vice presidential candidate seat. A number of figures are “desperate” to want to be involved. For example, Minister of State Affairs Erick Thohir, Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga Uno, Democratic President Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY). These three are the top three vice presidential candidates for 2024.
Given the current dynamics, Sandiaga Uno, who left Gerindra to join the United Development Party (PPP), will be proposed as Ganjar Pranowo’s vice-presidential candidate.
The PDIP could accept this proposal, because Sandiaga is one of the vice-presidential candidates who has the necessary logistics to face the elections. This condition was reinforced as the PPP also officially announced its support for the candidacy of Ganjar Pranowo. This means that Ganjar-Sandiaga will most likely be carried out with the PDIP-PPP coalition.
Prabowo’s name, now carried by Gerindra, will also be accepted by the National Mandate Party (PAN) of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). PAN fulfilled the mission of presenting Erick Thohir as a vice-presidential candidate. It could be that Gerindra is willing to pair Prabowo with Erick Thohir, who was proposed by PAN. Just like the Ganjar-Sandiaga coalition, Prabowo also needs Erick due to his electability and logistics.
In the third simulation, Anies Baswedan, who has currently received a ticket from the Coalition for Change, is just waiting for a name to be proposed as a vice-presidential candidate. A number of names have emerged, and Nasdem even admitted that there are five potential candidates who should accompany Anies. One of the strongest names, namely AHY. However, the names of East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa and former TNI commander General Andika Perkasa also appeared. Whatever its name, it will be an element of surprise within the Coalition for Change.
Besides the names of the three candidates, surprises could still arise in the 2024 presidential election. The highlight is the meeting between Golkar and PKB in Jakarta some time ago. From this meeting, the two men even agreed to appoint representatives to constitute the winning team of presidential and vice-presidential candidates. It could be that the KKIR and KIB, which currently dream of a grand coalition, will split into new coalitions.
The Golkar-PKB coalition could be the dream bonus for the three pairs of candidates desired by the public. Golkar-PKB is also sufficient to meet the thresholds required for the presidential candidacy to win Airlangga-Muhaimin in the 2024 presidential election. Make no mistake, they are not running to become presidential election champions. But both parties, given their track records, are very pragmatic.
Golkar cannot be far from power. Their objective is also to secure votes for the party after 20 years without victory. The PKB is also a typical pragmatic party. Muhaimin’s interest is also to win votes for his party. Both, perhaps hoping for a coattail effect.
Will these simulations be carried out? All we have to do now is wait for the due date. But, as long as it’s not forbidden, don’t be afraid to fantasize about the emergence of four pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Not just three, or two, but four.
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