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Some Canadians looking skyward this weekend may be surprised by two solar flares that will occur on the sun en route to Earth, potentially leading to sightings of intense aurora borealis.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center said Thursday that a strong geomagnetic storm the watch was issued from October 4 to 6 due to two coronal mass ejections.

This anticipated light show will be one of the first Northern Lights displays observed this year. This is due to the sun’s magnetic field, which is at the peak of its 11-year cycle and causes more solar storms, resulting in more frequent aurora borealis.

“To date, this peak has far exceeded predictions and has not yet reached its peak,” David Knudsen, chair of the department of physics and astronomy at the University of Calgary, told Global News on Thursday.

On Tuesday, scientists recorded one of the strongest solar flares of the cycle, likely the X7 flare, which was then overtaken two days later by the X9 flare on Thursday, the largest since 2017.

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According to Stanford Solar CenterSolar flares typically range from B – which is considered too small to harm Earth – to X, which can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

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When this beacon interacts with Earth, it will cause a geomagnetic storm which will then be rated from G1 to G5 in terms of strength, with G1 seeing the potential for small power grid fluctuations and G5 potentially causing total disruption to some grid systems. blackout. . The geomagnetic storm that hit this weekend has been classified as G3.

Despite concerns about the power grid, skywatchers are still excited about the storm’s impact overnight.

“Over the next couple of nights, opportunities are expected,” Chris Ratzlaff, an aurora chaser, told Global News on Thursday. “And maybe in the next three or four, like this X9, we’ll start to understand what that looks like, it might continue into the weekend.”

Ratzlaff gave about a 35 percent chance that Calgary, for example, could see the northern lights, particularly in the late afternoon and evening on Friday and early or mid-morning on Saturday.

According to mapping by NOAAparts of Canada could see aurora with the highest probability extending across the region and from British Columbia to Quebec, although parts of southern Ontario may be less lucky. Most Maritimers are also estimated to have a lower probability of being seen.

Erica Grow Cei, a NOAA spokeswoman, told The Associated Press it was still possible the storm could strengthen or weaken.

“There is still a lot of uncertainty,” Cei said.

Given the activity in the sun, this isn’t the first time Canada has had the opportunity to see the lights. A particularly powerful solar storm in May produced a spectacular aurora show in the Northern Hemisphere, but NOAA said this weekend could be a bit weaker in terms of light displays due to lesser emission from high-energy plasma that powers the storm.

—with files from Sarah Offin of Global News and The Canadian Press